DMDU: Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty

Mission Statement

To advance the methods, tools, and practice of decision-making under deep uncertainty in transportation planning, enabling more robust and responsible decisions in a rapidly changing world.

Goals

We are modelers, so this initiative takes a model-centric view of DMDU, but a big part of DMDU is moving the focus away from model forecasts and towards getting to better decisions! We seek to:

• Complement predictive applications of models with insights generated from exploratory applications
• Promote use of models in concert with decision makers and stakeholders
• Facilitate an adaptive planning process where multiple futures are considered and immediate steps are taken to maintain flexibility and resiliency

Grounded in Broader Decision Science

While Zephyr’s activity focuses specifically on travel demand modeling, DMDU itself is a mature, multidisciplinary decision science developed over decades across climate adaptation, water resources, defense, and economic planning. We do not claim to have invented these methodologies; rather, our working group adapts established DMDU frameworks—such as Exploratory Modeling, Robust Decision Making (RDM), and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP)—to the specific tools, workflows, and policy challenges of travel forecasting.

External Resources & Connections

• Society for Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU Society): The global, multidisciplinary network of researchers and practitioners advancing DMDU methods across public and private sectors. (Note: Zephyr draws on these open decision-science concepts specifically for travel modeling; we operate independently of the DMDU Society.)
• FHWA: Transportation Planning in Uncertain Times Report Federal Highway Administration guide (FHWA-HEP-22-031) highlighting how MPOs and state DOTs can incorporate exploratory scenario analysis and DMDU principles into regional planning processes.

Upcoming Events

Join the Conversation / Shape the Practice

• Join our Google Group to keep up on the latest from the DMDU activity. Note: You need to be logged into a Google account to join the Google group.

• Reach out to Marty and Flavia to help advance the activity! dmdu@zephyrtransport.org

Resources

Lead: Marty Milkovits and Flavia Tsang

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