Workshops
Future Uncertain: Research and Tools for Transportation Planning under Deep Uncertainty
Future Uncertain introduces Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) and contrasts it with traditional Predict-Then-Act approaches in transportation planning. Participants will experience considering and mitigating uncertainty through a collaborative planning game with evolving future conditions. An expert panel will then use game results to challenge current practices and discuss strategies to better incorporate deep uncertainty in planning tools and practices. The workshop will conclude with a group discussion to synthesize key takeaways and initiate further research and practice developments.
- Moderator: Marty Milkovits, Director of Modeling and Analytics, Boston Region MPO
- Game Lead: Flavia Tsang, Metropolitan Transportation Commission
- Panelists:
- Prateek Bansal, Assistant Professor, National University of Singapore (Presentation)
- Chandra Bhat, University Distinguished Teaching Professor, University of Texas at Austin (Presentation)
- Rachel Copperman, Vice President, Cambridge Systematics (Presentation)
- Naomi Stein, Vice President, EBP (Presentation)
- Tara Weidner, Climate Impact Analysis Program Lead, Oregon DOT-Climate Office (Presentation)
Overview and Game Play Slides
TRB 2024 Annual Meeting - DMDU Initiative Meeting
Virtual Workshop / Poll - July 2023
The virtual workshop had over 30 attendees and we had 24 responses to the uncertainty poll, about 40% of the uncertainty list membership. Not bad for a summer poll! There was a nice mix of responses from newbies to advanced beginners and right up to the cutting edge. A few highlights:
- The greatest interest/excitement (by average score) is to Develop methods and visualizations to effectively communicate uncertainty to stakeholders
- Second place goes to hosting a Peer exchange of uncertainties identified vs. tested, input variables and ranges, output metrics.
- All proposed topic areas averaged above a 4.0 except for case studies and a webinar panel, which averaged in the high 3’s.
There are also some great ideas on focus areas for the uncertainty initiative. These are included in the poll results linked below.
TRB Innovations in Travel Analysis and Planning Conference - June 2023
Travel Forecasting Uncertainty Workshop The purpose of this workshop was to advance the AEP50 Travel Forecasting Uncertainty Initiative. The workshop began with table setting presentations and then utilized breakout sessions to explore the four key challenge areas:
- Identifying uncertainty areas and ranges
- Exploring uncertainty space with quantitative analysis
- Visualization and analyzing results
- Translating results into useful inputs to the planning process
Moderator:
- Marty Milkovits, Boston Region MPO
Presenters / Facilitators:
- Tierra Bills, UCLA
- Rachel Copperman, Cambridge Systematics
- Naomi Stein, EBP
- Sarah Sun, FHWA
Facilitators:
- Jay Evans, RSG
- Greg Macfarlane, Brigham Young University
- Tara Weidner, Oregon DOT
Notes / Summary:
- Vivek Yadav, Cambridge Systematics
Presentations
- Uncertainty Initiative Overview
- Transportation Planning for Uncertain Times
- Uncertainty Modeling in Practice
- NCHRP 08-154 Planning for Uncertainty
Book Club
The DMDU initiative has hosted informal “book clubs” where we dive into reports, papers, and other publications related to transportation and uncertainty. It’s a chance to discuss ideas in an open, casual setting—sometimes even with the authors!
Have a suggestion for what we should read next? Reach out to Marty or Flavia—we’d love to hear your ideas!
Past Book Clubs
- Planning for Uncertain Transportation Futures: Metropolitan Planning Organizations, Emerging Technologies, and Adaptive Transport Planning
- Three of the paper’s authors—Devon McAslan, Lisa Kenney, and Farah Najar Arevalo—joined us for a discussion on their Adaptive Transportation Planning framework. Their paper outlines how uncertainty planning and policy actions can be structured into three key approaches: Anticipatory Governance, Responsible Innovation, and Long-Range Planning. This framework helps MPOs better understand and organize responses to deep uncertainty.
- Science Direct Link to paper
- FHWA Report: Transportation for Uncertain Times
- Marty Milkovits and Flavia Tsang led a ‘book club’ of sorts, with the focus on delving into the Federal Highway Administration’s Transportation Planning for Uncertain Times. We used the report’s framing to discuss methods and tools for decision-making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) and then reconnect on a regular basis to share experiences.